俄乌战事爆发满两周年，2023年万众瞩目的乌克兰大反攻成效逊于预期，乌军不但无法像此前一年在战场上大有斩获，收复不了多少土地，还失落数个战略据点，跟俄军陷入消耗战，究竟为什么？请看本期一周新闻特写——

俄乌战事两周年前夕，乌克兰接二连三传来震撼消息，先是备受爱戴的武装部队总司令扎卢日内遭撤换，其职务由陆军司令瑟尔斯基接替。

随后乌军失守乌东工业重镇阿夫杰耶夫卡，当地全面落入俄军手中。

乌克兰前线一片愁云惨雾，跟2022年相比，气氛截然不同，当时乌军收复了哈尔科夫州和赫尔松市，士气高涨，本来想凭借2023年发动大反攻乘胜追击，但此后无以为继。自开战以来，乌军一直都获得西方武器援助，为什么现在无法复制战绩呢？

有分析认为，俄乌两国在全球的军力排名分别为第二和第十八，军力存在明显差距。然而开战第一年的意外战果让乌方产生不切实际的期望，甚至因而改变战略。与此同时，西方援助没有随之而作出适当配合，第二年自然表现逊色。

乌克兰总统泽连斯基撤换统帅时，就要求接班人瑟尔斯基要为军队制定实际而有效的策略。

开战之初，俄罗斯自信可在数天之内攻下基辅、让乌克兰屈服，而未投入足够兵力，加上乌军除了得到西方援助外，还不以力敌、反以智取，诱骗俄军分散兵力到乌南部后，乌军就强攻东北部，并成功进占哈尔科夫，可见第一年的战果没有反映两军真正实力。

俄军随即变阵。首先，为了填补不足和阵亡兵力，俄方通过提高征兵年龄上限和改善士兵薪酬待遇来增加士兵数目。俄罗斯总统普京两个多月前透露，超过60万名俄军在乌克兰参战，人数是开战时的3倍。

其次，俄罗斯将经济置于战时状态，大规模增加武器产量，并且盛传从伊朗和朝鲜分别输入攻击型无人机和弹药，最近更在乌克兰战场发现疑似是朝鲜导弹的碎片，美国指责俄军不止一次向乌克兰发射朝鲜制弹道导弹，但俄朝两国对此予以否认。

第三，在乌军筹备大反攻之际，俄军就加紧沿着乌克兰前线以至俄罗斯边境地区，打造全长约1000公里的防御工事，它们一般由3道防线，包括反坦克壕沟、俗称“龙牙”的金字塔状混凝土块和战壕组成。其中反坦克壕沟非常宽阔，让坦克无法跨越，限制乌军进攻力度，甚或诱导乌军到险要之处加以施袭；“龙牙”则阻挠大型战车前进；每道防线之间又布下地雷阵，不但多次成功瓦解乌军进击，还摧毁多辆豹2主战坦克和布拉德利战车等西方援乌武器。

乌克兰方面，在开战第二年反守为攻，有分析认为这个策略转变是建基于前一年的意外战果，而未有考量多个会实际影响策略成败的客观因素。

首先，乌克兰至今还没有制空能力，乌军只有300多架军机，即便是加上本年春季会从西方接收的首批F-16战机，也难以跟俄军4000多架军机匹敌。专家指出，指望乌军在欠缺制空能力下取得军事突破是不切实际，而泽连斯基经过一年验证后向现实低头。

其次，乌军在人数和培训上也不足够。乌方声称有100万大军，但受上战场有年龄限制等因素影响，真正作战人数不明，只知不少乌军从战事一开打就在前线作战，至今疲惫不堪。士兵也欠缺训练。

虽然英、美、欧盟和北约都有为乌军提供训练，但培训时间往往比正规训练短。例如，英国的乌克兰志愿兵培训计划只有5周，远低于二战时英国步兵要接受的22周训练；同样乌克兰机师只有半年时间去学懂驾驶F-16战机，一般情况其实要花上数年才能训练出一名F-16机师。士兵量与质都欠佳，直接影响乌军攻势。

此外，尽管西方提供了不少先进武器，但数量上追不上乌军策略转为主攻后对军备需求的增幅。欧盟曾经承诺到2024年向乌克兰提供100万发弹药，不过截至2024年1月，弹药交付量只有30万，因为西方国防工业根本未准备好提高弹药产量。

按乌军目前每天最多发射7000发弹药计算，不用两个月，欧盟的30万发弹药就会耗尽，而俄军2023年一度每天发射最多六万发弹药，两者差距实在太大。

以上种种令2023年6月登场的乌军大反攻表现差劲，乌军无法在乌东、乌南前线突破俄军防线，跟俄军陷进消耗战。大反攻5个月后扎卢日内表示，乌军陷入僵局，外界将之解读为承认大反攻失败。

大反攻不成，拖累西方对支持乌克兰的意愿。虽然近日欧盟最终通过在4年内向乌克兰提供500亿欧元援助，英国、德国、法国也分别跟乌克兰签署长期安全保障协议，不过乌克兰最大金主美国包括援乌的950亿美元对外援助法案仍然有待在众议院闯关，有共和党议员表明会阻挠法案通过。没有外国援助，乌克兰将难以跟俄罗斯周旋下去，泽连斯基不得不四处寻求外国帮忙。

总结过去一年，在乌俄攻防战此消彼长下，俄军先于去年5月拿下乌东据点巴赫穆特，到今年2月又攻陷另一据点阿夫杰耶夫卡。乌军发动强攻，只夺回少量村庄和在第聂伯河左岸建立阵地，唯一的好消息来自黑海，乌军成功击退俄方海军的推进，并为谷物出口开辟重要海上通道。

专家指出，俄乌双方死伤惨重，而且至今未能取得足以在战场上翻盘的优势，反而年底美国总统大选，如果由对援乌持谨慎态度的共和党候选人、甚至是立场较为亲俄的特朗普胜出，可能不利乌方。

难怪在基辅，虽然不少民众对政府和军队百分百支持，但对前景仍然感到忧虑。

乌克兰民众：事实上，持续存在着对大环境的忧虑，我们无法像战争开打前那样自由地做自己，并以某种方式自在地生活。当然，我们不能了。

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未经允许不得转载：头条资讯网_今日热点_娱乐才是你关心的时事 » 俄乌战事两年，乌军为何无法复制最初战绩？